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The Pensacola Shooting: When Trust Among Allies Fails

The U.S. is considering whether it will expel more than a dozen Saudi Arabian military students after a shooting at a naval base in Pensacola, Florida last month that killed three people and injured...

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Soleimani and the True Measure of Deterrence

CONVERSATION STARTER — Few would argue that the January 3 drone strike that killed Iranian General and Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani was a bold move.  The overt nature by which the...

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The US Deal with the Taliban

The United States signed a peace agreement with Taliban leaders on Saturday that is intended to end the US’ 18-year involvement in Afghanistan. The deal agreed to in Doha, included the involvement of...

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Our Collective Mission on Groundhog Day

General David Petraeus (US Army, Ret) served over 37 years in the U.S. military, culminating his career with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the...

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OSINT Global Trendline Report: COVID and the Americas

The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Trend Line Report utilizes open source data on a quarterly basis to track trends around the world that impact national and global security.  We break the world down by...

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COVID and Navigating the New Middle East Challenges

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already complicated situation in the Middle East.  The Cipher Brief turned recently to our expert Norm Roule...

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COVID lessons from SOF to Silicon Valley

The Cipher Brief recently hosted General Joseph Votel (Ret.) for a member’s briefing on lessons learned from SOF to Silicon Valley and how the US needs to pull together to be ready for the next...

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Are We Ready for Another Shock?

OPINION — “Black swans” are events that arrive as unwelcome surprises and have significant effects on nations and societies. They can upend the status quo in politics, economics, or national security....

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The New Dynamic Cyber Threat Environment

An attempted cyberattack on Israel’s water system in late April, just months after the global pandemic hit, prompted fears that cyber adversaries are getting even more bold in their efforts to cause...

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Russian Aims in Afghanistan

Bottom Line: Russia is accused of funding Taliban contract killings of US troops in Afghanistan. US military officials made limited accusations of Russian arms support for the Taliban in 2018, a...

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Getting to the Left of Boom in 21st Century Warfare

The author  of this piece, Adam L. Silverman, PhD is a senior subject matter expert and consultant at Helios Global, Inc specializing in low intensity warfare and cultural considerations for strategy,...

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US National Security Challenges: A Conversation Among Experts

Understanding expert perspective on where the US stands in the world with regards to national security is a key component of how The Cipher Brief keeps the security community connected.  Michael...

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The Robot, the Targeter and the Future of U.S. National Security

Eric Washabaugh, Former CIA Targeting & Technology Manager Eric Washabaugh served as a targeting and technology manager at the CIA, where he served from 2006 – 2019, leading multiple inter-agency...

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Afghanistan: How Six Good Reasons Can Still Lead to a Bad Decision

Cipher Brief Expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey served for over 27 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office where his focus was on South Asia and North East Asia as well as on the issues of...

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How Iran is Winning, One Attack at a Time

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — This week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a statement confirming that “U.S. forces at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), engaged two...

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The Drone Series: A New Battle in the Air

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE:  The presence of drones/UAV’s in armed conflicts as varied as Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine is not only influencing military tactics and strategy but it’s also raising...

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Closing the Gap in US Cruise Missile Defenses

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – Following recent Russian airstrikes on Kyiv, Germany sent the first of four planned IRIS-T SLM air defense systems to Ukraine.  France, the UK and the Netherlands all promised to...

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Deep Tech Dominates Future Trajectory of Commerce, National Security

EXPERT ANALYSIS — Deep tech ventures have steadily gained stature as keystones of future economic and national security success. This sector nevertheless faces stiff challenges. Deep tech projects...

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DoD’s Replicator Drone Concept Builds on Lessons Learned in Ukraine

“Small, smart, cheap, and many”  is the way Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks describes the characteristics of the drones that the Pentagon intends to put in the hands of warfighters in 18-24...

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The West’s Weapons Problem: Growing Threats, Dwindling Stockpiles

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — As the U.S. and NATO deepen their involvement in a pair of major global conflicts, western nations face a critical security challenge: a decline in their weapons...

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